Baskaran. R

Russia’s Terms for Peace – Security vs Sovereignty Russia’s latest declaration that “security guarantees” and a strict “no NATO” clause are the terms for peace underscores the geopolitical deadlock at the heart of the ongoing conflict. Moscow’s demand seeks to reshape the European security architecture by preventing Ukraine from joining NATO, a stance that directly challenges Kyiv’s sovereign right to choose its alliances. While Russia frames this as a defensive necessity, many in the West view it as an aggressive attempt to curtail Ukraine’s independence and expand Moscow’s sphere of influence. The dilemma raises a critical question for the international community: should peace come at the cost of compromising a nation’s sovereignty? Any resolution will require balancing Russia’s insecurities with Ukraine’s right to self-determination—an equation that so far has kept peace elusive.

Banks are expected to face weaker margins in Q2 FY26 as rising deposit costs, tighter liquidity, and growing competition from smaller lenders put pressure on profitability. While credit demand remains strong, the need to offer higher deposit rates and the possibility of increased provisioning for stressed assets could weigh on earnings. Though the long-term outlook for the sector is positive, the coming quarter will test how well banks can balance growth with stability in a challenging economic environment.

Despite the recent withdrawal of foreign institutional investors, domestic equity investors in India continue to display remarkable confidence in the country’s long-term economic prospects. This resilience highlights the growing maturity of Indian investors, who are increasingly less swayed by short-term global uncertainties and more focused on structural growth within the domestic market. While ‘smart money’ may be exiting in pursuit of safer havens, the steady participation of Indian households and mutual funds underlines a shift in market dynamics where local investors are emerging as the backbone of the capital market. This trend not only strengthens market stability but also reflects the deepening financial literacy and trust in India’s growth story.

The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has proposed a more flexible framework for minimum public shareholding (MPS) norms, signaling a significant shift in capital market regulations. The move aims to provide greater breathing space to listed companies by relaxing the stringent timelines for achieving MPS post-listing. With this proposal, firms nearing their IPO stage could raise funds with eased compliance pressure while still maintaining investor protection. This step reflects SEBI’s intent to balance corporate growth needs with regulatory discipline, encouraging more companies to enter the capital markets without being burdened by rigid shareholding mandates.

The Centre’s recent call urging Indian fish exporters to diversify beyond the U.S. market and focus on value addition comes at a crucial juncture for the seafood industry. With the U.S. remaining the dominant importer but increasingly imposing non-tariff barriers and stricter quality checks, over-dependence poses a significant risk. Exploring new markets in East Asia, the EU, Russia, and South America, along with investing in cold chain infrastructure, certifications, and product innovation, will not only safeguard exporters from volatility but also enhance India’s global competitiveness. A forward-looking strategy rooted in diversification and value creation is essential to sustain growth in this vital sector of India’s economy.

The recent outlook on global gold prices highlights a striking reality: if the US dollar undergoes significant devaluation, gold prices could potentially double. With international spot gold already holding strong, experts suggest that prices may even touch $7,000 an ounce by 2030. The correlation stems from the fact that gold is traditionally seen as a safe-haven asset during times of currency instability. A weaker dollar not only makes gold cheaper for holders of other currencies but also drives investors to seek refuge in the metal as a store of value. This projection underscores the increasing uncertainty in global financial markets, where inflationary pressures, geopolitical risks, and currency fluctuations are reshaping investor strategies. For emerging economies like India, where gold holds both cultural and financial significance, such a surge in prices could have far-reaching implications for household savings, jewelry markets, and central bank reserve.